Harper's Political Savvy

The following was written in response to the ongoing political crisis in Canada right now.


To clarify—I write this as a hard-line left-winger who votes NDP every election on principle. So when I write that Harper’s latest move in Parliament just handed the Conservatives a majority in the next election, know that I am not being politically biased in saying so.

The next Canadian government—be it Harper’s Cons or Dion’s Coalition for Canada—is inheriting the single-worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Anyone remember how the economy was fixed that time? Despite everything governing parties tried across the world, nothing they did (short of Nazis redistributing Jewish wealth and funding a military-industrial complex) put a dent into the depression—the depression ran its course and died out naturally.

Canada has so far staved off depression not by Harper’s sound financial management, but rather because of the ridiculously high prices for oil this past summer, taken with Canada’s position as a major oil-exporting nation. Readers will note the price of oil has since fallen, taking our dollar with it.

Depression is inevitable in Canada because 85% of our exports go to the US. Our economy is so intricately intertwined with the Americans that we cannot expect vastly different economic results up here, regardless of who is running our ship. We can only hope America’s leadership will resuscitate our biggest customer sooner rather than later.

Now the opposition parties are willing to take the responsibility for the depression out of Harper’s hands. Harper should be overjoyed at ridding himself of this responsibility. When (and not if) the announcement comes that Canada has officially entered recession, the governing party at that time will be tar-and-feathered; and just like R.B. Bennett nearly 80 years ago, a government will be blamed, tried and executed for something they couldn’t do anything about, nor were responsible for.

By causing the opposition to unite in a coalition—and yes, Harper’s moves were low and partisan: but in Harper’s case, the ends justify the means—he has managed to turn the next election into a two-choice race. One of the choices will have their votes split among three different parties (four, counting Greens). One of the choices will be wearing a scarlet “R” for recession. The other choice will have the easiest path to a majority government since Chretien.

Harper can now only hope his party sees this clearly enough that his political career lives to see him reap the benefits.